PolitiFact Trump-O-Meter · AllSides Tracker · Government Data
Promises Made.Receipts Below.
Campaign promises paired with documented outcomes. We track what actually happened — and that includes promises he kept. Credibility requires acknowledging both. Judge for yourself.
Second-term promises link to PolitiFact's MAGA-Meter, which rates outcomes, not intentions. Where our rating differs from theirs, the entry says so.
Promise Scorecard
21 Promises Tracked
52%
broken
Based on documented outcomes · All entries sourced to PolitiFact, FactCheck.org, or government data
Promise
“Build a wall and make Mexico pay for it.”
2016 campaign through present · Core campaign promise, repeated in every rally
Outcome
Mexico never paid for any wall construction. During Term 1, only 3 miles of NEW wall were built where no barrier previously existed; 235 miles replaced existing fencing. Trump had promised 500 miles by end of his first term. PolitiFact rates this 'Promise Broken.'
Promise
“Lower mortgage rates to 3% and maybe even lower.”
2024 campaign · Housing affordability promise
Outcome
Mortgage rates have remained above 6% through 2025–2026. DOGE cuts to HUD are projected to worsen housing markets.
Promise
“Reduce energy prices by 50% and bring gas under $2/gallon.”
2024 campaign · Day One promise
Outcome
PolitiFact reported on January 20, 2026 that gasoline prices had declined, but not by 50%, and that electricity and natural gas prices rose. On April 10, 2026 it reported gasoline had passed $4 a gallon. PolitiFact rates both promises Stalled.
Promise
“No tax on Social Security.”
2024 campaign · Repeated promise to retirees
Outcome
The bill Trump signed created a temporary additional deduction for people 65+, but millions of Social Security recipients continue to pay taxes on their benefits. The deduction expires in 2028 and doesn't apply to recipients under 65.
Promise
“Protect our workers and protect our jobs.”
2024 campaign · Economic core promise
Outcome
Unemployment rose from 4.0% (Jan 2025) to 4.3% (Jan 2026), hitting a 4-year high of 4.5% in Nov 2025; it was 4.2% in Sept 2026. Mass federal firings through DOGE caused private sector job losses. Tariff chaos created market instability.
Promise
“No Project 2025 in my administration.”
October 2024 campaign · Distancing from Project 2025 amid voter opposition
Outcome
Administration is stacked with Project 2025 contributors. Russ Vought, whom PBS called "a chief architect" of the plan, serves in the administration. Before the election, 57% of registered voters viewed Project 2025 negatively in a September 2024 NBC News poll.
Promise
“I will end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours — before I even take office.”
2024 campaign, repeated · Signature foreign policy promise
Outcome
The war continued well past his inauguration. As of March 2026, the conflict is ongoing with no peace settlement in place.
Promise
“Repeal and replace Obamacare with something much better.”
2016 campaign, recycled for 2024 · Repeated twice across two presidential campaigns
Outcome
After failing to repeal the ACA in his first term despite Republican control of Congress, the promise was recycled for 2024. No replacement plan has been presented in either term.
Promise
“Drain the swamp.”
2016 campaign, repeated · Anti-corruption core message
Outcome
Multiple Trump associates have been indicted, convicted, or pardoned. His administration includes billionaires in key positions. Elon Musk's DOGE has faced multiple lawsuits over transparency and conflicts of interest.
Promise
“Bring down the cost of living on Day One.”
2024 campaign · Economic relief promise
Outcome
Overall grocery prices are up 2.1% since Jan 2025. Tariffs have increased costs on imported goods. The employment-population ratio declined from 60.1% to 59.8%.
Promise
“Withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement.”
2024 campaign · Energy and regulatory promise
Outcome
Trump signed an executive order withdrawing the US from the Paris Agreement on his first day in office, January 20, 2025 — the second withdrawal after he did so in 2017.
Promise
“Impose tariffs on China and other trading partners.”
2024 campaign · Trade policy promise
Outcome
Broad tariffs were imposed on imports from China, Canada, Mexico, and other trading partners beginning in early 2025. Whether the tariffs achieved their stated goals of reducing trade deficits and bringing back manufacturing is disputed, but the action itself was taken. PolitiFact rates the specific tariff promises (10–20% on all imports, 60% on China) In the Works, and the reciprocal tariff policy Stalled.
Promise
“End birthright citizenship.”
2024 campaign · Day One executive order
Outcome
The Supreme Court ruled against the executive order on June 30, 2026, blocking the promise, PolitiFact reported.
Promise
“Require voter ID at the polls.”
2024 campaign · Election promise
Outcome
The House passed a Trump-backed photo ID bill in February 2026. The Senate rejected it on August 12, 2026, PolitiFact reported.
Promise
“No tax on overtime.”
2024 campaign · Tax promise to hourly workers
Outcome
The July 2025 tax law created a tax break on overtime pay rather than ending the tax on it, PolitiFact reported.
Promise
“Restore the state and local tax (SALT) deduction.”
2024 campaign · Tax promise to high-tax states
Outcome
The July 2025 tax law temporarily raised the cap on the state and local tax deduction rather than fully restoring it, PolitiFact reported.
Promise
“No tax on tips.”
2024 campaign · Tax promise to service workers
Outcome
The July 2025 tax law includes a broad exclusion for tip income. It expires in 2028, PolitiFact reported.
Promise
“Pardon people convicted over the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riot.”
2024 campaign · Repeated at rallies
Outcome
Trump pardoned people convicted of offenses related to the Capitol riot on his first day back in office, PolitiFact reported on January 21, 2025.
Promise
“Withdraw from the World Health Organization.”
2024 campaign · Health policy promise
Outcome
Trump restarted the withdrawal process in January 2025. The U.S. left the WHO, PolitiFact reported on February 18, 2026.
Promise
“Restore and expand the travel ban.”
2024 campaign · Immigration promise
Outcome
Trump announced an expanded travel ban in June 2025. PolitiFact reported on March 6, 2026 that he had restored and expanded his first-term bans.
Promise
“Yeah, I would. I guess I would.”
June 2024 · Fox & Friends, as quoted by NPR. Asked whether he would declassify the Epstein files if reelected. He added that he would be less likely to release material “if it’s phony stuff.”
Outcome
NPR’s timeline, updated November 20, 2025 (“Trump makes the Epstein files public”), says he promised on the campaign trail to release additional Justice Department files if reelected, then resisted for months after taking office. A July 7, 2025 Justice Department memo said no further disclosure would be appropriate. On November 16, 2025, he urged House Republicans to vote to release the files. The House passed the Epstein Files Transparency Act 427–1 on November 18; the Senate passed it by unanimous consent the same day. He signed it on November 19, 2025. Disputes after the signature are on the cover-up page.